Phillies

Phillies Turn to Aaron Nola to Stay Hot, Spoil Rockies’ Home Opener

By Chris Wright

Published: Apr 3rd, 2026 · 11:02 AM EDT

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Back-to-back, 1-run wins. Key home runs from Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. An electric debut from Andrew Painter and rally-capping walk-off hit from fellow rookie Justin Crawford.

Just like that, all is well with your Phillies, who had the day off Thursday before hitting the road today to start a 3-game series at Colorado (2-4).

Aaron Nola (0-0, 5.40) hopes to bounce back from a so-so opening start. Michael Lorenzen (0.0, 6.40) was even worse his first time out. (Lorenzen, of course, was briefly part of the Phillies’ rotation in late 2023, going 4-2 in 7 starts after arriving at the trade deadline.)

Let’s break down today’s game (first pitch at 4:10 pm, ET) and find the best betting value as the Phillies (3-3) hope to spoil the Rockies’ home opener.

Phillies vs Rockies Odds

Aaron Nola Career Stats at Coors Field

GS	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	HR	H
6	2-3	38.0	4.03	1.21	33	8	5	38

Michael Lorenzen vs Phillies

G	GS	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	HR	H
16	2	1-4	19.1	6.98	1.86	23	11	4	25

Phillies HR Leaders at Coors Field

Player	HR	Games
Bryce Harper	9	40
Kyle Schwarber	8	21
Trea Turner	6	30
Alec Bohm	3	16
J.T. Realmuto	3	27

Phillies vs Rockies Prediction & Best Bet

Everyone sees “Coors Field” on the MLB app and immediately assumes we’re about to witness a slow-pitch softball game down in Clifton Heights. But let’s take a deep breath, ignore the thin mountain air for a second, and use some common sense. This is the Vinny Castilla/Larry Walker Coors Field era, but despite efforts to tame scoring, it’s still a hitter’s park.

Last season, 217 home runs were hit at Coors Field — matching the total hit at the Bank for 6th-most in MLB.

Best Pick: Under 10 Runs (-105 at Bet365)

Don’t get us wrong. We’re expecting the Phillies to get theirs today. Harper and Schwarber in particular love this place. But we’re anticipating a bounce-back effort from Nola, enough to propel the Phillies to a 6-3 type win.

And while blindly betting the Under in Denver usually gets you laughed out of the group chat, the numbers don’t lie.

The Rockies have an abysmal 0.00% Over percentage so far, hitting the Under 33.33% of the time (we can safely assume the rest were pushes or existential dread). Granted, all 6 of the Rockies games were on the road. Today is their home opener. The Phils haven’t exactly been mashing either, sitting at a measly 16.67% Over percentage. Sure, Nola and the Philadelphia pitching staff have been a bit generous with a 5.46 team ERA, but Colorado’s lineup isn’t exactly Murderers’ Row ready to exploit it. Don’t let the Coors Field reputation bait you into a trap bet. Take the Under, watch the shift, and enjoy the rare sight of pitchers actually surviving nine innings in Denver.

Phillies Player Props: Picks & Predictions at Coors Field

Brandon Marsh – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+123 at DraftKings)

Marsh continues to barrel up a baseball. Sporting a crisp .350 batting average with seven hits across 20 at-bats, he is seemingly immune to whatever offensive hex has temporarily short-circuited the top of the lineup. He’s facing Lorenzen, who currently boasts a generous 6.23 ERA and a batting average against of .368. Lorenzen has been serving up middle-middle fastballs on a silver platter, already allowing 7 hits in just 4.1 innings of work. Trust the man with the perpetually wet hair to slap an opposite-field single or drive one into the gap and easily rack up the bases.

Kyle Schwarber – To Hit a Home Run (+158 at DraftKings)

Home run props are obviously tricky. We ignored the noise and correctly called Harper’s first home run on Wednesday. Calling Schwarbombs is a little less daring, but the data supports the hope. Schwarber obviously is a fly ball hitter in a fly ball ballpark. He has hit 8 HRs at Coors — and he has had success off Lorenzen, too.

AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
24	9	4	3	0	2	6	3	8	.375	.444	.750	1.194