Sixers

Mapping Out the Sixers Potential Playoff Scenarios and Matchups to Watch

By Sean Barnard

Published: Apr 7th, 2026 · 2:18 PM EDT

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The long grind of the NBA regular season is just about complete, and the Philadelphia 76ers will suit up for some sort of postseason opportunity. Following the loss to the Spurs, they have dropped to seventh place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 43-36.

If the season were to have ended today, the Sixers would host a play-in matchup against the Hornets. If they are to win that, they would earn a first-round matchup with the Boston Celtics. If they were to lose this one-and-done matchup, they would face the winner of the Heat vs. Magic play-in game of the 9 vs. 10 seeds. The winner of this matchup would face the top-seeded Detroit Pistons in the opening round of the playoffs.

But the standings are not set in stone just yet.

Philadelphia has three games to play, which will be against the Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, and Milwaukee Bucks- in that order. Both Indiana and Milwaukee have been eliminated from playoff contention and thrown in the towel on the season months ago. As long as the Sixers approach the matchups with a necessary seriousness, they should not have much trouble closing the year with back-to-back wins. It is also worth noting that the matchups against the Rockets and Pacers are on back-to-back days, so some decisions will need to be made with the load management of the stars. Joel Embiid has voiced his displeasure with the decision-making surrounding his availability of late, while Paul George suited up for both halves of a back-to-back for the first time all season on Friday and Saturday.

However, the loss to the Spurs last night means the Sixers no longer fully control their destiny. They are currently a half-game behind the Toronto Raptors and tied with the Charlotte Hornets and Orlando Magic in record. They are also two games back from climbing to the fifth seed.

Tiebreakers are likely to be a factor at the season’s conclusion, which largely works in the Sixers’ favor. Philadelphia split its season series with the Raptors, but would own the tiebreaker due to having a better division record. The Sixers also won the season series against both the Magic and Hornets, which would give them the upper hand in the standings if they finish with the same record.

It is unlikely the Sixers could leapfrog the Hawks, as Atlanta holds the tiebreaker in this situation, and it is worth mentioning that if the Heat were to finish strong and match the Sixers record, they would hold the tiebreaker. We won’t get too deep into the weeds of tiebreakers for other teams, but it is a fairly jumbled mess with teams in this mix holding various tiebreaks over each other.

Remaining Schedules:

• Hawks: @ Cleveland Cavaliers, vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, @ Miami Heat
• Raptors: vs. Miami Heat, vs. Miami Heat, @ New York Knicks, vs. Brooklyn Nets
• Sixers: @ Houston Rockets, @ Indiana Pacers, vs. Milwaukee Bucks
• Hornets: @ Boston Celtics, vs. Detroit Pistons, @ New York Knicks
• Magic: vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, @ Chicago Bulls, @ Boston Celtics
• Heat: @ Toronto Raptors, @ Toronto Raptors, @ Washington Wizards, vs. Atlanta Hawks

To take a look at the playoff probabilities on basketball reference, the Sixers are given a 35.2% chance of finishing as a top-six seed. It projects them as a 27% chance of finishing in the seventh seed, a 20.6% chance of finishing in the eighth seed, 11.4% chance of finishing ninth, and 5.8% of finishing as the 10th seed when the regular season ends.

Taking a look at the betting odds, DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Sixers as -800 favorites to make the playoffs and +550 to miss. This includes if the Sixers were to make the play-in and earn their way out of it, and they currently hold -120 odds of finishing in the play-in mix.

The most notable other team to keep an eye on in this final stretch is the Toronto Raptors. Led by Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes, the organization largely overachieved for most of the season and is fading a bit down the stretch. They have lost 12 of their last 21, including some concerning losses in this mix. The Sixers have not exactly maximized on this, but they have a more favorable final stretch.

Considering the major questions surrounding the health status of Joel Embiid, Paul George dealing with a 25-game suspension, and even Tyrese Maxey missing three weeks due to injury, this is a respectable spot for the Sixers to be sitting in. But there must be an all-in push for these final three games to maximize their chances of earning the sixth seed and getting a full playoff series, which would likely be a matchup against the New York Knicks.

Given that the alternative would have been facing a Detroit Pistons team that is 4-0 against the Sixers this season and has been the best team in the Eastern Conference all season, or a Boston Celtics team that has overachieved even the most ambitious expectations coming into the year and now has Jayson Tatum back with them- a rematch with the Knicks seems really appealing. New York is not an easy out by any means, but it does feel a fair critique to note that this iteration of the Knicks does not move the needle the way the team that eliminated them in 2023-24 did.

In a vacuum, you can point to there being more talent on this year’s Knicks roster. But they look like a vastly different team on a night-to-night basis. The full “Nova Knicks” era had a clear identity of playing hard-nosed defense, winning every loose ball, and the team being entirely on the same page. They are now forced to live with the ups-and-downs of the Karl-Anthony Towns experience, which has seemingly grown increasingly frustration for Knicks fans, while Jalen Brunson is shooting the worst field goal percentage of his career. Isaiah Hartenstein, who crushed the Sixers in the 2023-24 series, is also no longer on the roster.

But the Sixers need to focus on their own outlook before we can lock in on a postseason matchup. Finishing the season 3-0 should pave the path for a sixth seed, given the schedule the Raptors will face, but this is not a guarantee. It is also far from a guarantee that the Sixers will beat a 49-29 Rockets’ team on Thursday. To keep the outlook simple, the Sixers must win and could use the Raptors to lose as much as possible from here on out. Losses to teams like the Hornets and Magic would be added benefits, but the focus should be on chasing the sixth seed, with the Raptors narrowly ahead of them.

We can have a real conversation about the Sixers postseason chances once their path is established, but all focus for now should be chasing the sixth seed and getting out of the play-in mix. Buckle up for these final three games.