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Can Phillies Win a Series in San Fran for First Time Since … 2013?
By Chris Wright
Published:
Can the Phillies somehow win a series in San Francisco?
The way things have been going — historically and this week — that’s very much TBD.
Today, they’ll turn to Aaron Nola (1-0, 3.18). He’ll face righty Tyler Mahle (0-2, 7.00). The pitching matchup sounds favorable, but so did the first two games of this series. The bullpen bailed out Andrew Painter on Monday, and it’s easier to just pretend Cristopher Sanchez’s start Tuesday never happened.
Onward. Today the Phillies will try to win a series at San Francisco for the first time since 2013. First pitch is set for 3:45 pm, ET, at Oracle Park.
We’ll preview what matters most and recommend the best bets.
Phillies vs Giants Odds
Aaron Nola vs Giants
| GS | W-L | IP | ERA | WHIP | Opp AVG | Opp OPS | K | BB | HR | H | ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 3-3 | 45.0 | 7.00 | 1.71 | .328 | .889 | 45 | 17 | 5 | 60 | 35 |
Tyler Mahle vs Phillies
| GP | GS | W-L | IP | ERA | WHIP | Opp AVG | Opp OPS | K | BB | HR | H | ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 1-1 | 13.0 | 3.46 | 1.08 | .250 | .739 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 5 |
Phillies vs Giants Predictions & Best Bets
The Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (-114 at DraftKings)
If you enjoy watching offensive baseball, you might want to look away. We are confidently taking the Under here because … well, have you watched these offenses lately?
Scoring 6 runs Tuesday was a Giants outlier. At home this season, the Giants are mustering 2.56 runs per game while hitting an abysmal 0.11 home runs per contest. They are drawing walks in a meager 6.40% of their plate appearances, meaning they aren’t even accidentally getting on base. Nola and a Phillies pitching staff that boasts a 10.36 K/9 rate are going to carve through this lineup. (Yes, we thought the same thing yesterday, too.)
On the flip side, the Phillies aren’t exactly setting the world on fire during their road trips, either. They’ve scored 9 runs in their past 4 games — including a shutout loss last night. Overall, they’re averaging a modest 3.80 runs per game away from Citizens Bank Park. Even if Giants starter Tyler Mahle and a pitching staff sporting a collective 4.37 ERA give up a few runs to the top of the order, the Giants simply don’t have the firepower to participate in pushing this total over the edge.
Unless the seagulls at Oracle Park start knocking baseballs into McCovey Cove themselves, do not expect a shootout today. Take the Under and enjoy a brisk, offensively challenged afternoon.
Phillies Player Prop Pick
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+122 at DraftKings)
Mahle obviously is off to a slow start this season, currently sporting a 7.00 ERA and a 1.778 WHIP. He’s generously allowing opponents to bat .351 against him. On the flip side, Harper enters this contest slugging .429 with five extra-base hits in the young season. When a dynamic power hitter gets to face a pitcher who is handing out opposite-field singles and gappers like free Wawa coffee, you don’t overthink it. Expect the slugger to do significant damage and easily clear his total bases mark before the stadium lights even need to turn on.
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 DraftKings)
If Harper is going to cause havoc, somebody has to keep the line moving. Enter Trea Turner. Given Mahle’s well-documented struggles and propensity for allowing hard contact (13 hits allowed per 9 innings), Turner’s elite bat-to-ball skills make him a nightmare matchup. At plus money, backing Turner to rack up bases against a pitcher who is consistently serving up meatballs is a value play you can’t pass up.
Phillies at Giants House of Horrors
The Phillies’ most recent series win at San Francisco came in 2013, though they split a 4-game series in 2017.
| Season | Date | Result | PHI | SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | May 6 | W | 6 | 2 |
| 2013 | May 7 | W | 6 | 2 |
| 2013 | May 8 | L | 3 | 4 |
| 2014 | Aug 15 | W | 5 | 3 |
| 2014 | Aug 16 | L | 5 | 6 |
| 2014 | Aug 17 | L | 2 | 5 |
| 2015 | Jul 10 | L | 2 | 15 |
| 2015 | Jul 11 | L | 5 | 8 |
| 2015 | Jul 12 | L | 2 | 4 |
| 2016 | Jun 24 | L | 4 | 5 |
| 2016 | Jun 25 | W | 3 | 2 |
| 2016 | Jun 26 | L | 7 | 8 |
| 2017 | Aug 17 | L | 4 | 5 |
| 2017 | Aug 18 | L | 2 | 10 |
| 2017 | Aug 19 | W | 12 | 9 |
| 2017 | Aug 20 | W | 5 | 2 |
| 2018 | Jun 1 | L | 0 | 4 |
| 2018 | Jun 2 | L | 0 | 2 |
| 2018 | Jun 3 | L | 1 | 6 |
| 2019 | Aug 8 | L | 0 | 5 |
| 2019 | Aug 9 | W | 9 | 6 |
| 2019 | Aug 10 | L | 1 | 3 |
| 2021 | Jun 18 | L | 3 | 5 |
| 2021 | Jun 19 | W | 13 | 6 |
| 2021 | Jun 20 | L | 2 | 11 |
| 2022 | Sep 2 | L | 1 | 13 |
| 2022 | Sep 3 | L | 4 | 5 |
| 2022 | Sep 4 | L | 3 | 5 |
| 2023 | May 15 | L | 3 | 6 |
| 2023 | May 16 | L | 3 | 4 |
| 2023 | May 17 | L | 4 | 7 |
| 2024 | May 27 | L | 4 | 8 |
| 2024 | May 28 | L | 0 | 1 |
| 2024 | May 29 | W | 6 | 1 |
| 2025 | Jul 7 | L | 1 | 3 |
| 2025 | Jul 8 | L | 3 | 4 |
| 2025 | Jul 9 | W | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 | April 6 | W | 6 | 4 |
| 2026 | April 7 | L | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 | April 8 | ?? | ?? | ?? |
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning MLB, NBA and college editor with previous stints at the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer. He vacationed at the Vet, believes Chase Utley is a HOFer and moved to Clearwater to watch the Phillies year-round. His magazine portfolio includes working as a writer and editor at Baseball America. He has decades of experience leading award-winning coverage of the NBA, Major League Baseball, College Baseball, College Basketball, College Football, and the ATP and WTA tennis tours. He has contributed to highly successful NFL coverage as well. Over the course of his career, Chris' team of writers has covered 4 men's Final Fours, 2 Super Bowls, 1 MLB World Series, dozens of professional tennis tournaments and NCAA championships in football and baseball. Chris joined Saturday Down South in 2015 and quickly was promoted to Executive Editor, where he successfully helped build the staff and directed college football, college basketball and college baseball coverage for 10 years. Under Chris' leadership and mentoring, Saturday Down South grew into the largest SEC-only website in America. In 2025, Chris took on a new challenge as the Evergreen Editor at SportRadar, primarily building and maintaining pages for Saturday Down South. In addition to overseeing that project, Chris also uses AI tools to cover MLB, the NBA, college sports, tennis and the NFL for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.