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Encore? Andrew Painter, Phils ready for Giants Test Tonight
By Chris Wright
Published:
Andrew Painter ended the Phillies’ 3-game losing streak in his MLB debut. Can he prevent skid another from developing tonight in San Francisco?
Such is life when you’re following Taijuan Walker (0-2, 9.41) in the rotation, right? Walker gave up all 4 runs in the Phillies’ 4-1 loss at Colorado on Sunday, which ended the Phillies’ four-game winning streak that Painter started.
In that first start, Painter was beyond impressive: 1 earned run and 8 strikeouts in 5.1 innings of a 3-2 win vs. Washington.
Tonight, he faces a 3-7 Giants club that features the worst offense in the majors. Alas, nothing is given, especially with a rookie making just his second MLB start. Giants starter Adrian Houser (0-1, 1.69) will throw the first pitch at 9:45 pm, ET.
Let’s break down Phillies at Giants and find the best bets on the board.
Phillies vs Giants Odds
Odds provided by consensus.
Adrian Houser vs Phillies
| W-L | IP | ERA | H | HR | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 27.2 | 3.90 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 15 |
Phillies Hitters vs Adrian Houser
| Batter | PA | AB | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 11 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .091 | .182 |
| Adolis García | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .000 |
| Bryce Harper | 11 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .300 | .764 |
| Dylan Moore | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 11 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | .273 | .818 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 20 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 1 | .267 | .917 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .143 |
| Bryson Stott | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | .667 | 2.417 |
| Trea Turner | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | .600 |
Phillies Hitters vs Giants Bullpen
| Batter | PA | AB | H | HR | RBI | AVG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 1 | .500 | 1.225 |
| Adolis García | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 | .533 |
| Bryce Harper | 13 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .250 | .788 |
| Brandon Marsh | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .286 | .571 |
| Dylan Moore | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .667 | 1.333 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .844 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 4 | .263 | .914 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 13 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2 | .364 | .839 |
| Bryson Stott | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | .600 | 1.267 |
| Trea Turner | 9 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .222 | .444 |
Phillies vs Giants Picks & Predictions
The Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+150 at FanDuel)
If you are looking for an offensive thriller from both dugouts, maybe flip over to a different channel. Take the Phillies to cover the run line and do not look back.
Why? The Giants’ offense at Oracle Park is comically inept right now. San Francisco averages a microscopic 1.86 runs per game at home. That isn’t a professional baseball lineup; that is a Delco beer league softball squad that started pre-gaming in the parking lot way too early. They boast a tragic 30.00% overall win percentage for a reason.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia is plating a respectable 4.33 runs per game on the road. The Giants’ pitching staff, however, is generously handing out free passes and base hits to the tune of a 1.36 WHIP and a 4.65 ERA. The standard moneyline implies a vig-free win probability of 51.87% for Philadelphia (and 48.13% for San Francisco), but at +147 odds, backing the boys in red pinstripes to win by multiple runs offers far superior betting value. Expect Philadelphia to easily cover the 1.5-run spread against a squad that probably couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a kayak into McCovey Cove.
Phillies Player Prop Picks & Predictions
Bryson Stott to hit a HR – (+760 at DraftKings)
Turning to the prop market, let’s stay hot. We correctly called Harper’s first homer on Wednesday and Schwarber’s homer on Friday.
We’re on a home run heater, which is why we’re willing to take a flier on Stotts tonight. The +760 odds are too enticing. We know Oracle Park is a a terrible spot to hit home runs (28th out of 30 last season in HRs/Game), but Stott has had success against Houser (2 HRs) and at Oracle Park. If the odds were +450 or lower, we wouldn’t bite.
Trea Turner – Over 1.5 Total Hits (+165 at BetMGM)
If you enjoy watching a pitcher politely serve up fastballs on a silver platter, you are going to love fading Adrian Houser tonight. San Francisco’s probable starter is currently allowing a highly generous 10.12 hits per nine innings to go along with a 1.31 WHIP. He is essentially handing out base knocks like free Wawa hoagie samples. Enter Trea Turner, who is pacing the offense with 11 hits across 38 at-bats, translating to a very .289 batting average. Backing Turner to find grass against this incredibly accommodating pitching staff is the easiest decision you will make all evening.
Brandon Marsh – Over 1.5 Total Bases (-190 at Caesars)
While the casual fan fixates on household names, we are turning our attention to the guy who perpetually looks like he just crawled out of a local swamp. Brandon Marsh is quietly putting together a fantastic start to his 2026 regular-season campaign, boasting a team-leading .303 batting average with 10 hits in 33 at-bats. Even better for total bases bettors, four of those knocks have been extra-base hits. When you pair Marsh’s hot bat with a pitching staff that practically begs opponents to hit the ball into the Oracle Park gaps, predicting Marsh to rack up multiple bases feels far less risky than trusting San Francisco to actually win a baseball game. Take the over and enjoy the delightfully unkempt vibes.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning MLB, NBA and college editor with previous stints at the Tampa Bay Times, Miami Herald, The Indianapolis Star and News & Observer. He vacationed at the Vet, believes Chase Utley is a HOFer and moved to Clearwater to watch the Phillies year-round. His magazine portfolio includes working as a writer and editor at Baseball America. He has decades of experience leading award-winning coverage of the NBA, Major League Baseball, College Baseball, College Basketball, College Football, and the ATP and WTA tennis tours. He has contributed to highly successful NFL coverage as well. Over the course of his career, Chris' team of writers has covered 4 men's Final Fours, 2 Super Bowls, 1 MLB World Series, dozens of professional tennis tournaments and NCAA championships in football and baseball. Chris joined Saturday Down South in 2015 and quickly was promoted to Executive Editor, where he successfully helped build the staff and directed college football, college basketball and college baseball coverage for 10 years. Under Chris' leadership and mentoring, Saturday Down South grew into the largest SEC-only website in America. In 2025, Chris took on a new challenge as the Evergreen Editor at SportRadar, primarily building and maintaining pages for Saturday Down South. In addition to overseeing that project, Chris also uses AI tools to cover MLB, the NBA, college sports, tennis and the NFL for Saturday Down South, Saturday Tradition, Crossing Broad, Sports Betting Dime and ESNY.