Phillies

Up? Down? A Best Guess About What Phillies Do in Series Finale vs. Cubs

By Chris Wright

Published: Apr 15th, 2026 · 1:03 PM EDT

---

Where did you go, Jesus Luzardo?

As sensational as the hard-throwing lefty was in a breakthrough 2025, this season’s start has been just as dreadful.

That’s not what the Phillies want to hear after the Chicago Cubs battered their bullpen for the second consecutive day. Monday, it didn’t matter. Kyle Schwarber homered twice in a 13-7 win. The Cubs scored 5 runs after Cristopher Sanchez left. Tuesday, the bullpen imploded, turning a 3-3 game into a 10-4 loss. Aaron Nola wasn’t great — he lost an early 3-0 lead — but he was better than what came next. For the non-math majors, the Cubs have scored 12 runs off Phillies relievers.

Can Luzardo get back to his dominant ways and help the Phillies (8-9) win the series and get back to .500?

Let’s crunch some numbers and offer our best bets for Pennsylvania and New Jersey sports betting apps.

Phillies vs Cubs Odds

Shota Imanaga vs Phillies

GP	GS	W	L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	HR	H	AVG	OPS
1	1	0	0	6.0	4.50	1.17	8	1	2	6	.250	.822

Phillies Hitters vs Imanaga

Player	Pos	PA	AB	H	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
Adolis García	RF	3	3	1	0	1	.333	.667
Alec Bohm	3B	3	3	1	1	2	.333	1.667
Bryson Stott	2B	3	2	0	0	0	.000	.333
Edmundo Sosa	2B	3	3	1	0	0	.333	.667
Trea Turner	SS	3	3	1	0	0	.333	.667
Dylan Moore	2B	2	2	0	0	0	.000	.000
Rafael Marchán	C	2	2	2	1	1	1.000	4.000

Jesus Luzardo vs Cubs

GS	W-L	IP	ERA	WHIP	K	BB	HR	H	AVG	OPS
7	4-0	43.0	2.30	0.93	50	14	4	26	.169	.553

Cubs Hitters vs Luzardo

Player	Pos	PA	AB	H	HR	RBI	AVG	OPS
Dansby Swanson	SS	22	16	3	0	0	.188	.659
Ian Happ	LF	18	13	2	0	0	.154	.543
Nico Hoerner	2B	14	14	3	0	1	.214	.500
Seiya Suzuki	RF	12	12	2	0	2	.167	.333
Alex Bregman	3B	10	9	2	2	4	.222	1.189
Carson Kelly	C	7	6	3	1	3	.500	1.738
Michael Conforto	LF	5	4	0	0	0	.000	.200
Miguel Amaya	C	4	4	0	0	0	.000	.000
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	3	3	0	0	0	.000	.000
Matt Shaw	3B	2	2	0	0	0	.000	.000

Phillies vs Cubs Best Bet

Our Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-120 at Bet365)

The winning team has cleared this game total by itself in each of the first two games of this series.

Luzardo has been excellent against the Cubs, but he hasn’t been excellent this season. We aren’t expecting an immaculate pitching duel tonight, making the Over 8.5 the ideal play on the board.

Here is exactly why we are smashing the over: The Cubs are currently an absolute dream for total chasers, hitting the over in a whopping 70% of their last 10 games. They’re averaging an impressive 5.38 runs per game on the road. Meanwhile, the Phillies manage to scrap together 4.64 runs per game in their own ballpark. Put those offensive averages together, and you easily clear the 8.5 threshold.

Even if Luzardo recovers his 2025 form — or lifetime form vs. the Cubs — at some point the bullpen will be asked to throw zeroes. Good luck.

The Phillies’ pitching staff is sporting a generous 4.62 collective ERA, and it is incredibly hard to envision a drama-free, low-scoring affair. The Cubs’ arms have been slightly better with a 3.99 ERA, but they are far from impenetrable. Unless Luzardo and Imanaga both pitch the games of their lives, expect plenty of traffic on the basepaths. Save yourself the headache of predicting a moneyline winner in this wildly inconsistent matchup. Root for chaos and take the over, then perhaps drift into the world of online casinos and online slots.

Top Phillies Player Prop Bets & Predictions

If we are being completely honest, trusting the Phillies’ offense right now feels a bit like trusting gas station sushi. You know what the risks are, but you’re probably going to do it anyway. Finding value requires looking past the big names who are currently underperforming and zeroing in on the actual numbers. Here are our favorite ways to bet the hitters tonight.

Trea Turner – Under 1.5 Total Bases (-151 at DraftKings)

Expecting Trea Turner to comfortably eclipse this total bases prop tonight is too much. Sure, he has the pedigree, but right now he is hovering at a thoroughly uninspiring .254 average across his 71 at-bats this season. More important, Imanaga is currently holding hitters to a laughable .161 opponent batting average while sporting a suffocating 0.81 WHIP. Banking on Turner to magically figure out how to tally multiple bases against a pitcher who barely lets anyone reach safely is an exercise in foolish optimism. Head over to DraftKings, take the under, and save your sanity.

Brandon Marsh – Over 0.5 Total Hits (-173 at DraftKings)

If there is one guy in this lineup who looks like he actually wants to be at the ballpark, it is the perpetually damp Brandon Marsh. While several of his high-priced teammates have spent the early weeks of the season trying to remember which end of the bat to hold, Marsh has quietly put together a very respectable .305 batting average. He has already tallied 18 hits in his 59 at-bats, making him one of the few reliable options in this lineup. Asking your most consistent contact hitter to scrape together one knock is a perfectly reasonable request. At -173 on DraftKings, we fully expect Marsh to find a gap and cash this ticket.

Brandon Marsh Past 10 Games

Date	Opponent	AB	H	2B
04/14/2026	vs Cubs	3	1	0
04/13/2026	vs Cubs	4	3	1
04/12/2026	vs Diamondbacks	4	2	0
04/11/2026	vs Diamondbacks	4	0	0
04/10/2026	vs Diamondbacks	4	1	0
04/08/2026	@ Giants	3	0	0
04/06/2026	@ Giants	4	1	0
04/05/2026	@ Rockies	4	1	1